How far in advance should I book my flight
It's really worth to plan a vacation in advance: hotel rooms, car for renting, tickets for performance events ca be very expensive in case of planning too late. But there is one exception: booking international flights.
The main question is: how far in advance should I book my flights. Few mothts ago I found an article that claimed that:
For international flights, it was still not good to buy too early or too late, but the sweet spot there was about 11-12 weeks in advance. For extremely busy travel periods like holidays, buying further out was usually better. For Thanksgiving 2012, for example, the optimal day to buy was, on average, 96 days before a flight. That’s almost 14 weeks in advance.
So, I decided to check mentioned suggestion and subscribed an KAYAK price-alarm service that informed me every morning about the current price for one direction (Frakfurt-New York) and for one time period (20 May-09 June).
Taking into the consideration that the whole US celebrates on 26-th May Memorial Day as a national holiday - 13 weeks (a mediana between 12 and 14 weeks) were chosen as a final time point of making conclusion.
13 weeks in advance from 20 May is 17 Feb. So. let's see how prices were changed:
First of all, let's analyze the lowest price values that inclide also 1 and 2 transit stops :
All flights
- 5 Dec -> 524€
- 12 Dec -> 506€
- 17 Dec -> 534€
- 26 Dec -> 508€
- 15 Jan -> 446€
- 3 Feb -> 479€
- 5 Feb -> 498€
- 8 Feb -> 559€
- 12 Feb -> 535€
- 16 Feb -> 534€
But that mean also sometimes up to 30 hours on the road instead of nonstop 8-hours comfortable flight.
So, next we will look into the another table that includes only non-stop options:
Nonstop flights
- 5 Dec 528€
- 12 Dec 578€
- 17 Dec 579€
- 26 Dec 580€
- 15 Jan 455€
- 3 Feb 548€
- 5 Feb 530€
- 8 Feb 559€
- 12 Feb 560€
- 16 Feb 600€
Now we can choose the least expensive offer that was possible between 5 Dec and 16 Feb (15 Jan -> the lowest price (1 stop) from 446€) and compare it with the proposed least expensive options for non-stop flights:
Non-stop flights / the least expensive option:
5 Dec -> + 18%
12 Dec -> + 30%
17 Dec -> + 30%
26 Dec -> + 30%
15 Jan -> + 2%
3 Feb -> + 23%
5 Feb -> + 19%
8 Feb -> + 25%
12 Feb -> + 25%
16 Feb -> + 35%
The conclusions are:
the most attractive price for NonStop flight appeared to be in January after Christmas and New Year holidays - approximately 17-18 weeks before the estimated flight on 20-th May.
Another aspect that should be taken into the consideration: purchasing a ticket in the middle of week (Wednesdays/Thursday) according to conventional wisdom and my own exploration really can lead to getting a lower fare, but of course within the global trend.